Sunday, January 2, 2011
Can trade in services offer an alternative to migration?
Can trade in services offer an alternative to migration? vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
High unemployment among the young and low skilled is fuelling anti-immigration sentiments across the OECD. This column argues that, in Western Europe, demographic trends are such that demand for many workers will exceed supply. It proposes a framework that enables the temporary movement of services providers, a policy that could address Europe’s labour needs while placating public resistance.
Recently released data show that the US population has increased 9.7% since 2000, reaching almost 309 million (US 2010 Census). While low by US standards, this growth rate far exceeds European rates. Europe is facing a demographic dilemma. Low fertility rates and increased life expectancy mean that labour forces are shrinking as dependency ratios are rising.
Declining youth populations imply this is not a temporary pattern but a reflection of long-term trends. The implications for labour markets, welfare policies, and fiscal balances are significant. In contrast to Europe, southern Mediterranean countries have a temporary bulge in their young working-age populations. They will complete their demographic transition within one generation, but current excess labour supply is creating social and economic challenges.
Current demographic trends suggest that the EU will face a severe labour shortage over the next decade while Mediterranean countries will continue to experience significant growth in their labour forces (Figure 1). The recession is reducing migration incentives somewhat and economic growth and demographic transitions in developing nations will reduce long-run pressures to migrate (Hatton and Williamson 2009). But in the short to medium term, the diverging labour market trends in the EU and its neighbours imply substantial incentives for migration
High unemployment among the young and low skilled is fuelling anti-immigration sentiments across the OECD. This column argues that, in Western Europe, demographic trends are such that demand for many workers will exceed supply. It proposes a framework that enables the temporary movement of services providers, a policy that could address Europe’s labour needs while placating public resistance.
Recently released data show that the US population has increased 9.7% since 2000, reaching almost 309 million (US 2010 Census). While low by US standards, this growth rate far exceeds European rates. Europe is facing a demographic dilemma. Low fertility rates and increased life expectancy mean that labour forces are shrinking as dependency ratios are rising.
Declining youth populations imply this is not a temporary pattern but a reflection of long-term trends. The implications for labour markets, welfare policies, and fiscal balances are significant. In contrast to Europe, southern Mediterranean countries have a temporary bulge in their young working-age populations. They will complete their demographic transition within one generation, but current excess labour supply is creating social and economic challenges.
Current demographic trends suggest that the EU will face a severe labour shortage over the next decade while Mediterranean countries will continue to experience significant growth in their labour forces (Figure 1). The recession is reducing migration incentives somewhat and economic growth and demographic transitions in developing nations will reduce long-run pressures to migrate (Hatton and Williamson 2009). But in the short to medium term, the diverging labour market trends in the EU and its neighbours imply substantial incentives for migration
The chicken or the egg, Minister Renner? :: Parkland blog :: Parkland Institute
The chicken or the egg, Minister Renner? :: Parkland blog :: Parkland Institute
According to Alberta's Environment Minister Rob Renner, "The fact remains, we have to face the reality that there will not be a dramatic reduction in dependence on hydrocarbons until alternative kinds of fuel and energy are developed."
Actually, he has it backwards. Alternative fuels will not be developed as long as it is business as usual for fossil fuels - not unless we dramatically reduce subsidies to fossil fuels and level the playing field. Rob Seidel, the new chairman of the board of Alberta Innovates Health Solutions, stated in the Edmonton Journal that, "More than 800 people at U of A are working on new technology for the oilsands." This is at the University of Alberta alone. Imagine what that level of research and development would be able to accomplish if harnessed for renewable energy.
A recent international study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development found that Alberta gives an estimated $1.05 billion in direct subsidies to oil and gas. In contrast, Tim Weiss of the Pembina Institute states that Alberta has no serious program to encourage the development of wind and other renewables.
According to Alberta's Environment Minister Rob Renner, "The fact remains, we have to face the reality that there will not be a dramatic reduction in dependence on hydrocarbons until alternative kinds of fuel and energy are developed."
Actually, he has it backwards. Alternative fuels will not be developed as long as it is business as usual for fossil fuels - not unless we dramatically reduce subsidies to fossil fuels and level the playing field. Rob Seidel, the new chairman of the board of Alberta Innovates Health Solutions, stated in the Edmonton Journal that, "More than 800 people at U of A are working on new technology for the oilsands." This is at the University of Alberta alone. Imagine what that level of research and development would be able to accomplish if harnessed for renewable energy.
A recent international study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development found that Alberta gives an estimated $1.05 billion in direct subsidies to oil and gas. In contrast, Tim Weiss of the Pembina Institute states that Alberta has no serious program to encourage the development of wind and other renewables.
WTO Airbus Dispute
International Economic Law and Policy Blog: Report on the Second Oral Hearing in the WTO Airbus Dispute
Report on the Second Oral Hearing in the WTO Airbus Dispute
Here's more reporting on the WTO Appellate Body oral hearings in the Airbus dispute, by Malorie Schaus (malorie.schaus [at] graduateinstitute.ch) and Tobiasz Kaczor (tobiasz.kaczor [at] gmail.com) of the Graduate Institute in Geneva. This is their report of the participants' and third participants' oral statements and the second oral hearing: http://www.worldtradelaw.net/abhearings/WTO-Airbus-Case-Second-Hearing.pdf Thanks to both of them for all their hard work!
Posted by Simon Lester on January 02, 2011 at 08:21 AM in Airbus - Boeing Dispute | Permalink
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Report on the Second Oral Hearing in the WTO Airbus Dispute
Here's more reporting on the WTO Appellate Body oral hearings in the Airbus dispute, by Malorie Schaus (malorie.schaus [at] graduateinstitute.ch) and Tobiasz Kaczor (tobiasz.kaczor [at] gmail.com) of the Graduate Institute in Geneva. This is their report of the participants' and third participants' oral statements and the second oral hearing: http://www.worldtradelaw.net/abhearings/WTO-Airbus-Case-Second-Hearing.pdf Thanks to both of them for all their hard work!
Posted by Simon Lester on January 02, 2011 at 08:21 AM in Airbus - Boeing Dispute | Permalink
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Saturday, January 1, 2011
Zapitistas,Mexico,Property Rights & Mexico
The Zapatistas timed the rebellion to coincide with the implementation of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, between Canada, the US and Mexico.
They called NAFTA a "death sentence", as it removed from the Mexican constitution Article 27, a provision won during the first Mexican revolution in the early part of the last century, designed to guarantee collective property rights to those who worked the land.
Vocal opposition to NAFTA gained the rebels support from trade unions and other social movements who tried - and failed - to stop the agreement.
They called NAFTA a "death sentence", as it removed from the Mexican constitution Article 27, a provision won during the first Mexican revolution in the early part of the last century, designed to guarantee collective property rights to those who worked the land.
Vocal opposition to NAFTA gained the rebels support from trade unions and other social movements who tried - and failed - to stop the agreement.
GATT formed 1949 was replaced by WTO in 1995
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (typically abbreviated GATT) was negotiated during the UN Conference on Trade and Employment and was the outcome of the failure of negotiating governments to create the International Trade Organization (ITO). GATT was formed in 1949 and lasted until 1993, when it was replaced by the World Trade Organization in 1995. The original GATT text (GATT 1947) is still in effect under the WTO framework, subject to the modifications of GATT 1994
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